The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC a fortnight ago got producers to cut production from January 1, 2017 to shore up the price of crude in the international market.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers again last Saturday reached a deal to jointly have an oil freeze to ease the global glutted market since July 2014.
Nigeria was exempted from production cuts to make up for lost grounds occasioned by militancy in the Niger Delta since February 2016.
The decision ordinarily would herald glad tidings for Nigeria but the continual catch of the hurry sickness is in the offing.
Nigerians have seen the intended OPEC production freeze for hooray.
The same crude perceived to be a boon to state coffers to aid budget implementation is again on cue for imported petroleum products price increases at the pump. We know that prices of imported products are determined by the vagaries of crude oil in the international market
Oil Another mulish approach to what was christened deregulation for imported products on May 11, 2016 would follow soon.
In August 2015, then Group Managing Director of the NNPC and now Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr.
Ibe Kachikwu told Nigerians that fuel subsidy was an unsustainable drain on the economy, calling for the deregulation of the oil and gas sector.
According to Kachikwu, deregulation will provide a fair deal for Nigerians from abundant petroleum resources, through fair product prices for consumers, full cost recovery, and reasonable margins for operators.
To him, implementation of the policy will entrench efficiency in product usage, product availability and effective competition among investors, hence ending product shortage.
He sounded like Thomas More’s 1516 philosophical treatise of utopia.
Some of us were not persuaded by the December 2015 full deregulation of the downstream sector by introducing the price modulation would solve the problem because we knew that with no refining capacity it was a riddling possibility.
We knew that a substantial part of whatever we derive from low crude price would be ploughed to the importation of refined products and petroleum-base raw materials. Deregulation proponents erroneously implied allowing market forces to determine the price even when Nigeria was importing petroleum products.
The implication was that with gutted crude market we paid more and now with high cost of crude if OPEC and non-OPEC, NOPEC agreements stand we are likely to pay more for imported products.
The principle of giving Nigerians petroleum products which they need at the least possible costs with local refining would evade us. In the deregulation package, Kachikwu-led NNPC took out import subsidy on May 11, 2016, with an increase of premium motor spirit, PMS by 68.60 percent from N87 to N145.
This posed a serious challenge to the Nigerian monetary authorities because of the inflationary tendencies it generated.
The monetary authorities also compounded the people’s woes in June 2016 by devaluing the Naira in a floated, flexible exchange rate by about 70 percent.
Again the incongruous interaction between the monetary and fiscal authorities gave the economy out to recession by the third quarter, Q3 2016 and teetering along the path of depression.
IMF study is that global trade is dominated by the export of goods that sold better after a cut in exchange rate. IMF proposition is that a 10 percent cut in the value of a nation’s currency can boost exports by an average 1.5 percent of GDP; a benefit in exchange rate for foreign trade.
And here we are exporting only one primary commodity (crude oil) and devaluing our currency by about 70 percent in one fell swoop. The sermon from preacher men Federal Ministers was diversification which indeed became a sing along for them. With no refining capacity, reliance on crude exports that went haywire and petroleum products imports Nigeria was in for it.
What we called downstream deregulation would have made better sense if only there are adequate structures including local refining capacity.
The vulnerable Nigerian continued to groan under high pump price of imported petroleum products in a free falling and devalued Naira.
Downstream deregulation with intention for the private sector to come in has hit a brick wall with the NNPC being the sole importer of petroleum products.
Deregulation argument that the Federal Government would free itself from foreign exchange problem when marketers source their foreign exchange to import products is worn out as the Minister has reregulated the downstream by importing products.
That we are part of OPEC and NOPEC that came together to cut production to shore up price reaffirms that deregulation is not cast in stone.
Deregulation proponents cite the United States; the U.S. allows private citizens to own mineral rights.
It is only on federal land does the federal government directly own the oil under the ground. If the government doesn’t own the oil, and doesn’t grant itself a monopoly, a national oil company has no inherent market advantage – it must buy drilling rights from landowners like anyone else.
Even at that petroleum in the United States is still a regulated commodity with petroleum super majors enjoying production subsidies with tax rate way below the standard 35 percent.
Section 43(3) of the Federal Government of Nigeria Constitution states that: ‘’the entire property in and control of all minerals, mineral oils and natural gas in, under or upon any land in Nigeria or in under or the territorial waters and exclusive economic zone of Nigeria shall vest in the Government of the Federation and shall be managed in such a manner as may be prescribed by the National Assembly.”
The constitution is clear about state ownership. Another flier is privatisation, often with deregulation forming a pair.
Experts say they do not necessarily translate to improved efficiency let alone investments in infrastructure.
In Europe the wholesale privatisation in the 80s and 90s of state owned enterprises are now being bought back by governments and metropolitan districts.
Nigeria’s power projects that have been privatised or deregulated are still under government intensive care units, ICUs with government technically funding them and also getting blackmails that unless consumers pay more tariffs, the sector will collapse.
Is our deregulation for foreigners to explore, produce, export crude for the state to share proceeds monthly? Nigeria at the best of times has 90 percent of its operations in the hands of international oil companies, IOCs as joint venture partners.
Our little contribution to production from the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company, NPDC the NNPC subsidiary has been tangled in the web of controversy and miry corruption allegations.
Who is our saviour from the headaches of the petroleum problem child? The beat goes on ad infinitum with deregulation blitz with encores from the United States, North West Europe, Middle East, China, India and an anchor in Dangote refinery started this year to come on stream in 2018.
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